Billy Ryle: Figures Show Applications To College Are Down On Last Year

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Career Guidance Counsellor and Educational Commentator, Billy Ryle on the interim statistics released by the CAO which heralds good news for college applicants…

Interim figures released by the Central Applications Office (CAO) suggest that the rush to college may be levelling off.

The data covers the period up to 1st March, the closing date for amending course choices. 78,012 applications have been lodged with the CAO, down 1,164 on the same time last year.

With the economy flourishing, it seems that more Leaving Cert candidates are seriously considering the ‘world of work,’ apprenticeships, traineeships and further education as alternatives to the CAO route.

It looks as if the final number of CAO applications, which will be released later in the year, will be less than last’s years record number of 84,526.

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The significant decrease in the number of mature applicants (23yrs or older) is further indication of the growth in employment. In total, there are 6,587 mature applicants, down by 2,140 or 24.5% on last year’s number.

The interim data will change slightly when late applications are taken into account and when the Change of Mind facility closes on 1st July at 5pm.

The majority of CAO applicants will be permitted to use the Change of Mind facility when it opens on 5th May to add, remove or re-order course choices, which will result in changes to the figures released for 1st March. Late applications are also accepted up to 1st May at 5pm.

Despite the decrease in CAO applications, competition for prestigious courses will again be intense if the grade inflation of the past two years is allowed for a third consecutive year.

The points race will be further fuelled by the promise to Leaving Cert students that the overall grades will be no lower than the past two years.

The guarantee was given after students argued that they would be at a disadvantage in competing with applicants from 2020 and 2021 if the playing field was not levelled.

On average, the 2022 Leaving Cert class can expect to receive at least 60 CAO points more than they would have achieved in 2019.

It will bring more CAO applicants up to very high, if not maximum, points levels, putting pressure on courses where competition is always very keen.

One wonders if it wouldn’t be wiser to return to the pre-Covid marking schemes and accept that 2020 and 2021 were abnormal years.

The relatively high number of 2021 applicants who deferred their place until 2022 could cause less place to be available this year in sought after courses.

Applications from other EU countries and from Northern Ireland and Britain are also up.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine may deter Irish students from travelling abroad to mainland Europe for third level education. On the plus side, Minister Simon Harris plans to provide extra places to ease the pressure on points.

Additional places are being targeted at courses in high demand. For example, there will be about 60 extra places in first year undergraduate medicine.

Extra places in 2020 and 2021 ensured that 50% of honours degree applicants received their top choice and up to 80% received one of their top three choices. That should be Minister Harris’ aim again this year.

Disciplines that have seen a surge in first preference applications include environment, up 35%, arts/humanities, up 6%, architecture/construction, up 11%, computing up 6%, with 3,829 applications.

As expected, a staggering 4,025 first preference applications have been lodged for engineering, much the same as last year. There is a 7% drop for primary education, compared with a 2% rise for post-primary.

Interest in health-related courses is down 12%, including a 27% fall in nursing after two difficult years of front-line care. But, against that, dentistry is up 12pc and medicine is up 1pc.

The “green wave” of applications for environment courses is up by 35%. Business/Administration is down by 3%, although it still registered a massive 8,492 first preference applications.

Applications are very much on par with current trends in a very healthy employment environment.

Applicants are keeping a very close eye on the jobs market and are acutely aware that a good qualification is a passport to a successful career.

Prospects for the 2022 Leaving Cert class look very promising. Except for a few very competitive quota-based courses, there will be a third level course on offer for the vast majority of CAO applicants. That’s how it should be!

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