OPERATING with the perceived wisdom that “the bookies are always right”, with just two and a half weeks to voting, we had a look at how the 2016 General Election betting is shaping up for the new five seat Kerry constituency.

According to Paddy Power, they’re banking on business as usual for four current TDs to stay in the job.  Fianna Fail’s John Brassil is also odds-on to be elected, but Labour’s Arthur  Spring and Fianna Fail’s Norma Moriarty are still very much in the mix.

Continued below…

The current betting has Michael Healy Rae storming back in the doors of Leinster House looking a dead cert to retain a seat at 1/50. You won’t get much value on Jimmy Deenihan either at 1/33 or Martin Ferris (1/20) while Fine Gael’s Brendan Griffin is less of a certainty at 1/7.

Following the withdrawal independent Tom Fleming it’s all to play for that final seat.

The bookies have John Brassil at odds-on for the fifth seat at 2/9, with sitting TD Arthur Spring at 6/4. Fianna Fáil’s Norma Moriarty is at 9/4 and then there’s a big gap to the rest of the field.

But two and a half weeks is a long time in politics!

Meanwhile, Michael Healy Rae is favourite at 6/4 with Boylesports to get the most first preference votes in the  ahead of Enda Kenny at 2/1. Paddy Power though put the Kerry man at 15/8 second favourite, just behind Michael Lowry at 13/8.

Here’s the Kerry betting…

1. Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/50
2. Jimmy Deenihan (Fine Gael) 1/33
3. Martin Ferris (Sinn Fein) 1/20
4. Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 1/7
5. John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 2/9
6. Arthur Spring (Labour) 6/4
7. Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 9/4
8. Brian Finucane (AAA-PBP) 33/1
9. Grace O’Donnell (Fine Gael) 40/1
10. Michael O’Gorman (Ind) 40/1
11. Kevin Murphy (Ind) 40/1
12. Mary Fitzgibbon (Ind) 80/1

Odds from Paddy Power online as of Tuesday 2:30pm